The 2026 Urban Science Harris Poll Study* surveyed more than 3,000 U.S. auto buyers and approximately 250 U.S. OEM dealers to understand both perspectives on the shifting path to purchase. What emerged is a market where conviction in the dealership model is strengthening at the same moment buyers are becoming harder to predict, convert 和 retain.  

According to the study, 63% of dealers strongly agreed the traditional dealership model was optimized for the future. Auto buyers showed some improvement 和 42% in agreement, a five-point increase from 2025. However, figures remain well below the 63% of dealers who said they are prepared for the future, creating a 21-point perception gap. On the surface, the numbers are encouraging, but buyer behavior tells a different story. 

Affordability Is Rewriting the Rules of Buyer Loyalty

Elevated interest rates, economic uncertainty and rising vehicle costs continue to reshape how auto buyers approach the market. When asked about their biggest concerns around leasing or buying a vehicle, 58% cited affordability as the leading concern. Growing cost pressure is changing buyer behavior in measurable ways. 

Nearly one third of buyers (31%) reported a heightened focus on price and value over brand loyalty. Meanwhile, 44% said they were spending more time researching before contacting a dealership compared with a year ago. Consumers are cross-shopping more brands, price-shopping more aggressively and submitting leads more frequently than in previous years.  

With once-loyal buyers now more likely to compare makes, models and pricing before committing, every lead interaction carries more weight than it did even 12 months ago. A generic response or missed follow-up creates an opening for a competitor to win the sale, and pursuing leads that have already purchased elsewhere results in precious resources being directed away from prospects who are still in-market.  

Dealers See the Risk But Lack Answers

Dealers surveyed in the 2026 Study recognized the heightened risk of defection from cost-sensitive consumers. Confidence in their sales teams’ ability to nurture and convert leads remained strong, but 38% cited a lack of real-time insight into lost sales as a key challenge.  

74% said they were not fully satisfied with their ability to identify when a lead had defected 和 nearly half (49%) identified the lead-to-sale conversion rate as the metric they would most like to improve. Dealers want to improve conversion and recognize they are losing leads but a significant share lack the defection intelligence needed to pinpoint when, where and to whom those losses are occurring. 

Daily Defection Intelligence in Practice

Urban Science provides the industry’s only source of daily automotive sales and defection data, giving dealers the clarity to act on lead outcomes far quicker than reviews informed by delayed vehicle registration data allows. Together, SalesAlert™ 和 交通视图® give dealership managers a daily operating rhythm for managing defection, helping them understand the pattern behind it and adjust their process before additional leads are at risk.  

  • 销售提醒 notifies dealers the day after a lead purchased a vehicle from another same-brand or competitive dealership. Removing out-of-market leads from the pipeline frees up bandwidth for more targeted and personalized outreach to high-intent shoppers. 
  • 交通视图 helps dealers analyze defection patterns by lead source, model, salesperson and geography, so leaders can diagnose whether conversion challenges stem from marketing or communications breakdowns and identify targeted coaching opportunities to improve performance. 

Competing on Process Will Payoff

In a market shaped by affordability concerns and weakened brand loyalty, dealers’ price is only one element of competition. Urban Science’s piloted defection survey found communication was the biggest factor influencing customer defection, reinforcing the need for dealers to understand not only when shoppers leave, but why.  

Tracking losses as closely as wins provides a clearer picture of where the sales process succeeds and where buyers disengage. It helps identify which lead sources produce the strongest conversion rates, which salespeople excel where it matters most and where specific process adjustments can drive measurable improvement.  

Confidence in the dealership model is well-founded, but sustaining strong performance in the current market means closing the gap between what dealers believe about their operations and what the data actually reveals about their buyers’ behavior. 

*This survey was conducted online by The Harris Poll on behalf of Urban Science among 3,012 U.S. adults aged 18+ who currently own or lease or plan to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle in the next 12 months (between January 5 to January 28, 2026) and among 252 U.S. OEM automotive dealers, whose titles were Sales Manager, General Manager or Principal/VP/Owner (between January 5 to February 4, 2026).

Summary

Confidence in the traditional dealership model has reached a five-year high among dealers and auto buyers, according to the 2026 Urban Science Harris Poll Study*. Yet the same market forces fueling optimism are also reshaping how buyers shop.  

With affordability ranking as the top concern for 58% of auto buyers, brand loyalty is weakening, research cycles are lengthening and more consumers are submitting leads across multiple dealerships. To protect profit, dealers must bridge the gap between confidence in their sales team and actual visibility into lost leads.  

FAQ

  • What are defections in an automotive sales? Defection occurs when a buyer who submitted a lead to one dealership purchases a vehicle from a different same-brand or competitive dealership. According to the 2026 Urban Science Harris Poll Study, 74% of dealers said they were not fully satisfied with their ability to identify when a lead defected. Urban Science addresses the visibility gap through SalesAlert™, which notifies dealers daily when a lead purchases elsewhere. 
  • Why is buyer loyalty weakening in the auto industry? Affordability is the primary driver. The 2026 Urban Science Harris Poll Study found 58% of auto buyers cited affordability as their top concern when leasing or buying a vehicle. As a result, 31% of buyers reported a heightened focus on price and value over brand loyalty and 44% said they were spending more time researching before contacting a dealership compared with a year ago.
  • How can dealers improve their lead-to-sale conversion rate? Nearly half of dealers (49%) in the 2026 Urban Science Harris Poll Study identified lead-to-sale conversion as the metric they most wanted to improve. Stronger conversion starts with understanding where and why leads are lost. Daily defection data from Urban Science allows dealers to identify leads who purchased elsewhere and analyze patterns by source, model and salesperson through TrafficView®. With those insights, dealers can make targeted process adjustments rather than defaulting to purchasingadditional leads.
  • What is SalesAlert™ and how does it help dealers? SalesAlert™ notifies dealers the next day when a lead has purchased a vehicle from another same-brand or competitive dealership. By identifying out-of-market leads, 销售提醒™ allows sales teams to reallocate follow-up time toward active, in-market buyers and respond more effectively to high-intent opportunities. 
  • How is daily defection data better than monthly sales reports? Monthly reports show aggregate outcomes after the fact. Daily defection data gives dealers daily visibility into lost sales, including whether the leads purchase from same-brand or competitive dealerships. Urban Science provides the industry’s only source of daily automotive sales and defection data, giving dealers a unique view beyond their own rooftops and brand network. With this visibility, dealers can adjust follow-up cadences, identify coaching opportunities and address process gaps before additional leads are lost. 
  • Is confidence in the dealership model growing?Yes. The 2026 Urban Science Harris Poll Study found confidence at a five-year high among both dealers and auto buyers. Nearly two-thirds of dealers (63%) strongly agreed the traditional dealership was optimized for the future and 42% of auto buyers agreed, a five-percentage-point increase from 2025. Sustained performance, however, requires addressing visibility gaps in the sales process through consistent use of defection intelligence.