Analyzing demand of IVIG products
The economics of plasma-based drugs are complex. The supply is based on the availability of plasma donations from individuals and involves a 12-18 month processing time. For wholesalers, the focus on inventory management is more important than margin. Predicting demand would allow wholesalers to increase their purchase of plasma products before a spike in usage, and therefore optimize inventory and increase profits.
The study looked at various data points that could be used to predict demand based on historic fluctuations. A comprehensive view of the market was accomplished by combining internal intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) sales data with external data sources. The analysis set forth to find relationships between demographic information and plasma product sales data. Since demographic information can be forecasted through established processes, the sales data, therefore, can be forecasted with any correlation found with this study.
A comprehensive view of the market was accomplished by combining internal intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) sales data with external data sources.
The study found a number of variables with relationships to the IVIG sales data. The strongest predictor was Health Systems with a Blood Specialty. By analyzing the patient mix within those health systems and applying demographic projections, an IVIG sales forecast can be attained. The second strongest predictor was the Number of Pregnancy Cases Taken at the Hospital. Similarly, by looking at demographic projections for future pregnancies, a reasonable sales forecast can be achieved.
The model provided an R2 of 51%. “R squared” indicates how well data points fit in a statistical model. An R2 of 100% signifies a perfect fit.
- Health Systems with Blood Specialty have the strongest relationships to IVIG sales and also has the highest volumes.
- Number of Pregnancy Cases taken at the hospital was the second largest predictor of IVIG sales.